If there was one thing that was as popular as this summer’s World Cup Finals in Brazil, it has been betting on the events as they unfolded.
From the spectacular demise of teams like England, Italy, Spain and later on in the competition Brazil, to the shocks of Luis Suarez biting Giorgio Chiellini, Germany’s 7-1 thumping of Brazil and their ultimate triumph in the final, the World Cup has been a betting bonanza.
However, with less than a month to the start of the new football season in England, there is a chance for you to make a few pounds with a little known betting market.
You’ll find it at SkyBet under the Quick Links section entitled Transfer Specials. So how can you cash in? Read on to find out.
Not yet a customer of SkyBet? Anyone who is new to the site can enjoy a stellar bonus offer – £30 in free matched SkyBet sports bets with no deposit required.
SkyBet Transfer Specials – an explanation
The Transfer Specials section of the website is simply a list of players, many of them top stars from the world of football. You are betting on the player making a transfer to one of the stated clubs before the 2nd September 2014 (when the current transfer window closes).
There is a long list of players who have been rumoured to be on the move over the summer and you can place a bet with SkyBet on which club they are likely to sign for before the deadline expires. If the player makes the move (permanently – no loan deals are allowed) then you win the bet.
If he signs for another club, or remains at his current club, then you lose the bet. Simple.
However, with all the tools at your disposal now, you can potentially make a nice profit on this market if you are prepared to do a little extra research and then time the placing of your bet to perfection.
Here’s how.
Making a profit with SkyBet’s Transfer Specials bets
1. Conduct your research
The accuracy of your bet will depend entirely on the quality of your research and there is a lot you can do before a transfer is confirmed, to ensure that it is accurate and that you get on the deal at the best price.
- News outlets and websites – There are a whole host of websites that report transfer news or ‘gossip’ as it is sometimes called. While much of this is simply bluster and misinformation, there are often times when a transfer will be first reported here. Pay particular attention to ‘local’ news reports. Often local supporters will have a contact at a local club and can pick up on a potential transfer dealing first. For example, if a source at the Manchester Evening News reports than Manchester United or City are in for a player, give that more credence than if a national tabloid reported on it.
- Social media – The real benefit to the football fan however is in social media. Get yourself on Twitter and Facebook and follow the feeds of all football transfer related sites and the feeds of players and teams. Scan these each day for news of potential transfers. You can often get first heed of a transfer when a player tweets something, or another source tweets something.
- Cross reference your reports – This isn’t a big job and you don’t need to do this for all transfers, simply put the more reliable sources reporting that a player is on the move to another club, the more likely that transfer is to happen.
The real key however is judging when a transfer rumour becomes a transfer story and then a transfer fact.
The later along this continuum you place your bet then the smaller the odds you will be when you do. For example, if you waited until the last few weeks to place a bet on Luis Suarez joining Barcelona, then even if you could have placed a bet (SkyBet will terminate betting on some markets when the transfer is very obviously going through) the odds would have been hardly worthwhile doing so.
However, if you had placed a bet prior to the World Cup on this outcome, when rumours were very scarce, then you’d have got far better odds and a much greater return.
2. Place your bet – timing is key
The Golden Rule when betting on SkyBet’s Transfer Specials is that timing is crucial. The earlier you place your bet when there is the least amount of speculation, then the better the odds will be. However, the more likely it is that the transfer could be derailed or altered in some way that means your bet loses.
For example, at the start of the summer, Real Madrid were the favourites to sign Luis Suarez if he was to leave Liverpool. Many people backed Real to sign Suarez as a result, especially when the Uruguayan had been strongly linked with the club last summer.
Therefore, the fact he joined Barcelona instead meant these bets were lost. So to avoid losing bets, here’s what you do. Look through the list of players SkyBet are offering markets on, scan the press for their names. What are the newspapers saying about the player and a potential transfer? What do the local press say about a move?
Then check social media and keep a close eye on it. The immediate nature of social media means that just one tweet or one Facebook post can open your eyes to a potential transfer. When you believe a transfer is imminent, head to SkyBet, find the market, and place your bet as quickly as you can.
Remember, SkyBet have an extensive range of sources and the likelihood is they will likely hear about any transfer news before you. Therefore, you have to time your bet perfectly to get the best price.
3. Use common sense
One thing you have to master to bet on these markets successfully is to realise that not all options offered by SkyBet for a player are viable. Some clubs are listed, often at short odds, for a player when they have very little or no prospect of buying them in real life.
A great example of this at present is the current market on who Edinson Cavani will sign for before 2nd September 2014. Currently, Manchester United are the 2.75 favourites, Liverpool are close second favourites on 3.50 and Man City are third favourites at 7.00 and Chelsea fourth at 8.00.
Arsenal are 10.00 and Real Madrid 26.00. Now it is my belief here that you can count Liverpool out of this race. Why? Well the first reason is that Cavani does not fit the profile of a Liverpool signing.
Brendan Rogers tends to buy younger players who will appreciate in value. Cavani at 27 doesn’t represent a good value investment that way. There is also the issue of Cavani’s wage demands which would likely see Liverpool forced to pay the Uruguayan considerably more than their current top earner.
So could Manchester City buy him? Certainly they could, but with Paris St-Germain having as much financial firepower as City, they would not allow him to come cheaply. There is also the question of whether City actually need another striker given they already have the likes of Alvaro Negrdeo, Stefan Jovetic, Edin Dzeko and Sergio Aguero at the club.
The likelihood of Chelsea and Arsenal signing him are also small as both clubs have already spent large amounts on a striker this summer (Chelsea £30m+ on Diego Costa, Arsenal £35m on Alexis Sanchez). That means the 2.75 odds on Manchester United landing the player look great value as all the other potential destinations look unlikely and with United having the financial firepower to pay PSG the asking price, plus the ability to match Cavani’s wage demands, this looks a solid bet.
By using your common sense and football knowledge in this way, you can discount many of the options SkyBet have available for some players. This helps you narrow down the field and place a bet with greater certainty on the potential validity of the transfer.
Transfer Special bets are great fun bets to make but if you hear about a deal at the right time and from the right sources and if you place your bet quickly enough, you can turn a small bet into a solid profit. You do need to be lucky, but you can mitigate this by solid research and a deeper understanding of the likelihood of a transfer.
I’ve just put £10 on Edinson Cavani being a Manchester United player by September 2nd. Let’s see if I’m right!