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Plenty Still to be Decided this Weekend in the English Premier League

It has been a very unusual season in the Premier League this year. After 30 years without a title, Liverpool ran away with the trophy after opening up a gap of over 20 points on rivals Manchester City which meant that their little blip in form of late hasn’t really mattered in the context of the league title. Add to that the struggles of more established teams like Arsenal, Tottenham and Man Utd, and the table has taken on a rather unusual look at times.

That and the later date for finishing the season means that it has been a very different season than usual and it all comes to a head this weekend with all 10 games taking place at the same time on Sunday, meaning that there will still be plenty to play for at both the top and bottom of the table for a large number of teams.

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Let’s now take a look at the issues still to be decided in the Premier League on the final day of fixtures, as well as what has already been resolved.

Premier League Matchday 38

Let’s start this review by taking a look at the issues that have been resolved in the Premier League so far.

  • Resolved Issues

Premier League Champions – Liverpool

Qualified for the Champions League next season: Liverpool and Manchester City

Relegated from the Premier League – Norwich City

Will not qualify for a European Qualification Spot or be Relegated – Sheffield United, Burnley, Arsenal, Everton, Southampton, Newcastle United, Crystal Palace, Brighton. In addition, West Ham would need to lose and see both Aston Villa and Watford win their final games and see a goal difference turnaround of more than 13 goals against the Hammers in total, in order for West Ham to go down. The chances of that happening are slim to none so West Ham, while not mathematically safe, should be safe as things stand.

As you can see, that means that there are still a lot of teams involved in the key issues of European qualification places and Relegation. He teams involved in each are outlined below.

  • Unresolved Issues

Champions League Qualification – Chelsea, Leicester, Manchester United & Wolves

Behind Liverpool and Manchester City, third and fourth place qualify for the Champions League this season in the Premier League. While Wolves can mathematically secure a spot, the odds of it are incredibly small and if Man Utd pick up a point or more tonight in their game with West Ham, then this will move them up the table into third or fourth and mean Wolves cannot qualify.

Europa League Qualification – Chelsea, Leicester, Manchester United, Wolves, Tottenham.

The teams finishing 5th and 6th in the Premier League are guaranteed a Europa League spot this season (as Manchester City have won the Football League Cup and have already qualified for the Champions League). If Chelsea win the FA Cup Final then 7th place in the Premier League will take the third Europa League spot, while if Arsenal win the FA Cup, then they would take the Europa League spot.

European Tournaments

Furthermore, if any English team wins the Champions League, then they will qualify for that trophy next season (Chelsea and Manchester City remain in the competition) while if either Man Utd or Wolves win the Europa League, then they too would qualify for the Champions League next season and their Europa League spot would instead go to the next team not qualified for the Europa League in the Premier League table.

Relegation – West Ham, Aston Villa, Watford, Bournemouth

We have already noted that West Ham are very unlikely to go down and Norwich are already relegated, so it means two from Villa, Watford and Bournemouth will face the drop, Villa are outside of the drop zone thanks to a better goal difference than Watford. Bournemouth must win and hope Villa and Watford lose, and that they end up with a better goal difference than both teams, in order to stay up.

Premier League Final Day Fixtures

All games kick off at 4pm on Sunday 26th July. The key games affecting the issues outlined above are highlighted in bold.

  • Arsenal v Watford
  • Burnley v Brighton
  • Chelsea v Wolves
  • Crystal Palace v Tottenham
  • Everton v Bournemouth
  • Leicester City v Manchester United
  • Manchester City v Norwich City
  • Newcastle United v Liverpool
  • Southampton v Sheffield United
  • West Ham v Aston Villa

Key issues

  • Watford must achieve a better result than Aston Villa, or if they both lose Watford need to lose by two fewer goals in order for the Hornets to stay up.
  • However, if Watford and Villa both lose and Bournemouth win away at Everton and improve their goal difference to better than both Watford and Villa, Bournemouth will stay up.
  • A win for Chelsea in either of their final two games of the season (away to Liverpool tonight and at home to Wolves in the fixtures above) qualifies them for the Champions League next season.
  • If Manchester United beat West Ham tonight, then Leicester would have to beat Man Utd on Sunday and do so by a big enough scoreline to improve their goal difference to better than United’s in order to take the fourth Champions League spot.
  • If United draw or lose tonight, then a win for Leicester would be enough for the Foxes to finish fourth. A big win for United tonight though gives them a big advantage heading into the Leicester game at the weekend.
  • If Wolves lose or draw with Chelsea and Tottenham beat Crystal Palace, Spurs would finish sixth and earn a Europa League spot. Wolves then would require Chelsea to win the FA Cup, or Man Utd or themselves to win the Europa League to earn a European spot next season.

Of course, so much can change over the course of the afternoon as goals go in and with all matches being shown live on Sky Sports, it promises to be a dramatic afternoon and one that punters are going to have a great deal of enjoyment betting on the outcome on.

 

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