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Wembley Final, London Derby, FA Cup Trophy At Stake – Who Wins, Chelsea or Arsenal?

This weekend, two top London sides will clash for the third time in the FA Cup Final. Arsenal have won both of the last two finals between themselves in Chelsea, one in 2002 (a 2-0 win) and a 2-1 victory in 2017. Chelsea and manager Frank Lampard will be desperate to put those two defeats behind them and claim a win here.

For Arsenal though, the game is much more than about winning the trophy. It is the only route the Gunners have into the Europa League next season and if they want to keep their star players and maybe attract more in the summer, a European spot is a massive boost to those chances. For Chelsea, it is all about ending what has been a promising first season under Frank Lampard with some silverware.

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Let’s now preview the game taking place this weekend at Wembley with a look towards deciding who to back to lift arguably the most famous domestic cup trophy in the world.

Arsenal v Chelsea – FA Cup Final

Arsenal and Chelsea have met twice before in FA Cup Finals, and it is Arsenal that have come out as the winners on both previous occasions. In 2002, it was goals from Ray Parlour and Freddie Ljungberg that gave Arsenal a 2-0 win over their London rivals, and then in 2017, the Gunners also landed the trophy when Alexis Sanchez and Aaron Ramsey scored to give them a 2-1 win over Chelsea, for whom Diego Costa found the net.

Chelsea may not have had much FA Cup Final success against the Gunners, but they have beaten them twice in two other finals. Beating them 2-1 in the 2007 Football League Cup Final, thanks to a brace from Didier Drogba and then again most recently a 4-1 thrashing of the Gunners in the 2019 Europa League final, when Eden Hazard grabbed two goals along with single strikes from Olivier Giroud and Pedro.

That gives both sides two wins apiece in major finals, so whoever comes out on top of the game on Saturday, will take the lead in the head to head battles between the teams.

Final Details

Anthony Taylor will referee the final, the second time he has officiated in the finale to the Premier League season and the game will kick off at 5.30pm UK Time on Saturday 1st August at Wembley Stadium, where of course no crowd will be present for the game, a first for the FA Cup Final.

The Road to Wembley

Arsenal

  • 3rd Round – v Leeds United (H) – W 1-0 (Nelson 55)
  • 4th Round – v Bournemouth (A) – W 2-1 (Saka 5, Nketiah 26)
  • 5th Round – v Portsmouth (A) – W 2-0 (Papasthatopoulos 45, Nketiah 51)
  • Quarterfinals – v Sheff Utd (A) – W 2-1 (Pepe 25 (pen), Ceballos 90)
  • Semifinal – v Manchester City (N) – W 2-0 (Aubameyang 19,71)

Chelsea

  • 3rd Round – v Nottingham Forest (H) – W 2-0 (Hudson Odoi 6, Barkley 33)
  • 4th Round – v Hull City (A) – W 2-1 (Batshuayi 6, Tomori 64)
  • 5th Round – v Liverpool (H) – W 2-0 (William 13, Barkley 64)
  • Quarterfinals – v Leicester (A) – W 1-0 (Barkley 63)
  • Semifinal – v Manchester United (N) – W 3-1 (Giroud 45, Mount 46, Maguire OG 74)

Both teams have had remarkably similar progress to the final, both playing three Premier League teams en-route, no match requiring extra time or a replay to decide the outcome and both teams beating opponents from Manchester in the semifinals when underdogs for that particular game. Incredibly both teams have also conceded just two goals in their five games in this competition so far but Chelsea have scored one more goal, 10, to Arsenal’s 9 in reaching the final.

Chelsea have had arguably the tougher route into the final having faced the teams finishing 1st, 3rd and 5th in the Premier League in their last three games in the competition, although Arsenal’s win over Championship Champions Leeds United and second placed in the Premier League Manchester City are equally notable, as was their last gasp away win at Sheffield United.

Arsenal v Chelsea – Five Most Recent Matches

  • 21st January 2020 – Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
  • 29th December 2019 – Arsenal 1-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
  • 29th May 2019 – Chelsea 4-1 Arsenal (Europa League Final)
  • 19th January 2019 – Arsenal 2-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
  • 18th August 2018 – Chelsea 3-2 Arsenal (Premier League)

We can see that this year Chelsea picked up four points from their games with Arsenal in the Premier League, winning at the Emirates in December but then being held 2-2 at Stamford Bridge a month later in January. Arsenal’s last win was at home in the Premier League in January 2019, but Chelsea have had the better of recent exchanges between the teams winning three to Arsenal’s one with one draw. Chelsea have scored 11 goals in those games, compared to Arsenal’s 8.

FA Cup Final Tips

The finals between these teams and their most recent history suggests that this is going to be a very close game between them and I think that will be the case. Games also suggest that we are likely to see goals too and again, I think this could be one of the best finals in terms of goalscoring and even-ness between the teams for many years.

For me though, I just feel the extra edge in quality Chelsea have in midfield will be key. I also feel the Gunners defence is the weaker of the two and while Aubameyang, Saka and Lacazette are a real threat for Arsenal, I just think Chelsea will have too much of the ball and create more chances against that leaky Arsenal back line.

My tip is Chelsea to win (23/20) and I’d pick a 3-2 scoreline for them to do so (25/1) and for a goalscorer pick, I’d back Willian to score at any time at 7/4.

*All odds shown were correct with bet365 Sport as of 1pm on Wednesday 29th July 2020.

 

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